Top 5 players for whom you should temper expectations in 2010
By Bob Metz
Each season, there are players who excel and go above and beyond expectations and have enormous fantasy stats. Likewise each season, fantasy owners make the mistake of expecting the same from them the following season. Some players have team changes which can seriously impact their star players’ production in a very negative way, yet they still get drafted high based on their prior season’s production. With this in mind, I offer to you my top 5 players for whom you should draft with the understanding that they likely will decline to varying degrees in fantasy points this season:
1. Chris Johnson – Titans RB:
Surprised to see his name here? You shouldn’t be. Johnson became the 6th player in NFL history to amass 2,000 rushing yds from scrimmage in 2009. There is a reason why there have only been 6. It’s very hard to do. No one has done it in multiple seasons, and while Johnson has the talent to be a Hall Of Famer one day, history says that the 2,000 yd mark won’t happen again for the star RB. This in addition to the news coming out of Titans camp that the team is expected to give Johnson less carries this season, so their star doesn’t wear out. Vince Young is expected to pass more this season, and defenses will no doubt be scheming against Johnson defensively. He’s no doubt still a top 3 pick, and will probably go #1 more often than not, but a repeat of last year isn’t realistic.
2. Ray Rice – Ravens RB:
Rice’s stats last season were 254 carries for 1,339 yds plus 78 receptions for 702 yds. Those are good numbers that won’t be repeated this year. Last season, Joe Flacco could only rely on aging veteran Derrick Mason at WR, so Rice was his outlet. Rice also saw more carries as a result of the lack of a passing game. This offseason, the Ravens showed that they want to be more committed to the pass by acquiring WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth to add to the returning Mason. The addition of the sure-handed Boldin will give the Ravens passing game a huge boost and they will probably use Stallworth in the slot. Mason will probably be the #2 WR with Boldin as the #1. Flacco will have options this season and will not have to rely so heavily on the running backs to catch passes out of the backfield. The Ravens did try to pass downfield last year, but there was nobody they could count on to consistently catch passes. This year they will have that. Also not to be overlooked is the fact that the Ravens gave a lot of goal line and short yardage carries to Willis McGahee, who had 14 total TD’s last season to Rice’s 8. Rice will be drafted as a top 5 pick, but his stats may disappoint for being drafted so high.
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3. Steven Jackson – Rams RB:
Yes, I know, the top 3 are all RB’s. But hear me out yet again. 324 carries puts a lot of wear and tear on a player’s body. Jackson got that many carries for 1,416 yds in ’09, and that was because the Rams had no other offensive players who could be counted on. Jackson carried the team on his back last season and it is showing in a literal sense, as the Rams star had back surgery in the offseason. If this surgery doesn’t heal just right, Jackson may have a harder time carrying the load yet again in 2010. Let’s also not forget that Jackson played in 15 games last year, but hasn’t played a full season since 2006. He’ll get his 6th straight 1,000 yard season, but far shy of 1,700 total yards.
4. Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals WR:
Easy. Kurt Warner is gone, and Fitz will be catching passes (if he gets the ball to him) from Matt Leinart. In 2006, Leinart played in 12 games. That was the only year in Larry’s career where he failed to reach the 1,000 receiving yards mark other than his rookie year. Leinart threw for 12 TD’s that season and Fitzgerald only caught 6 of them. Leinart threw for 12 INT’s that season, 1 more than the number of TD’s he threw. Last season Leinart played in 8 games. He threw 0 TDs and 3 INT’s. With the Cards trading WR Anquan Boldin, defenses can now dedicate more attention than ever to covering Larry. The Cardinals are also attempting to get more involved in the running game. This leaves Larry Fitzgerald to be a fantasy bust this season, and he’ll be the second or third WR off the board in your fantasy draft. Do not be the one who makes this mistake.
5. Thomas Jones – Chiefs RB:
Jones was the featured runner for the Jets last season and had 331 carries for 1,402 yds and 14 TD’s. What a difference one offseason can make. The Jets decided to part ways with Jones, and signed Ladanian Tomlinson to go alongside Shonn Greene. Jones is now a Chief and they already have a young feature back in Jamaal Charles. How the carries get split between the two is yet to be determined, but in no way will Jones get as many carries as Charles, barring injury. Jones is 31, and most running backs start their decline at 30, so Jones will probably be used on third downs, short yardage, and to spell Charles during games. Even if he does get more carries than I’m expecting, it will be well shy of 300, and Jones will likely have less than 1,000 yards rushing. Look for a big drop off in 2010.
You could add Maurice Jones Drew to this list as well, just for the fact that Jack Del Rio does not know how to use him. I had him in one league last year and it’s feast or famine with him. One game that frustrated me the most was vs. Tennessee. He broke 80 and 79 yard TD’s in the first half, yet finished the game with only 8 carries and 177 yards, 159 of those on the two TD’s. Plus in nine of his 16 games he totaled less than 100 yards rushing and receiving.
I wonder what your settings were in your league with Drew. I’m guessing you were in a league where the yards per carry points were harder to come by. I agree that Jones-Drew has some dud games. Here’s one: Week 2 – 13 car. 66 yds. 4 rec. 17 yds. 0 TD’s. Here’s another: Week 4 – 6 carries 14 yds. 3 rec 26 yds 1 TD. Yes, he can be feast or famine. At the end of the season though, he finished with 1765 total yards and 16 TD’s. Still commanding numbers and worthy of being a RB1. But you have to have a strong stomach with him week to week. Thanks for the comment!