St Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson stained his groin in Sunday’s game against the Washington Redskins.  If Jackson misses any time, backup RB Kenneth Darby should be a good option if you are looking for a RB option  for week 4, especially with bye weeks starting.  Darby finished the game with 14 rushes for 49 yards and one TD,  and one catch for 8 yards in relief.  He did share carries with Keith Toston, but Darby was the one with the most carries of the two as well as the score.

ESPN’s Stephania Bell reports that Colts WR Pierre Garcon did not make the trip to Denver and is OUT against the Broncos.  WR Austin Collie should be started with confidence for week 3 if you have no better option.

As off-season camps start wrapping up and the pre-season just around the corner, fantasy drafts everywhere are getting ready to take place. I am here to offer 5 players who’s stock is falling in fantasy drafts. These are in no particular order, and I’m not saying not to draft these players, I’m saying be careful where you draft them.

1. Kenny Britt WR (Titans): Britt was in my 5 fantasy players on the rise just over a month ago, as his promise was evident late last season. Word from Titans camp that he has been dealing with numerous small injuries and is having a pretty bad camp, however lands him on this list today. I’d stay away from Britt until at least the 7th or 8th round.

2. Rashard Mendenhall RB (Steelers): T Willie Colon is out for the season with a torn achilles and that spells trouble for an already uncertain offensive line. The Steelers hope that rookie C/G Maurkice Pouncey can become the player they need him to be – and fast! With the O-Line’s best player out of the fold and an uncertainty in the passing game while Ben Roethlisberger is out, that means less and smaller holes for Mendenhall. The Steelers RB is going in rounds 2-3 in most mock drafts and I’m telling you that is much too high. Take a pass on him unless you get him at a great bargain.

3. LeSean McCoy RB (Eagles): Brian Westbrook he is not and he didn’t show much last year to suggest that he can handle the starter role. Perhaps more importantly is the Eagles’ penchant for using too many RB’s, especially near the goal line. This offseason, the Eagles signed RB Mike Bell who played with the Saints last year and vultured many a TD from Pierre Thomas.

He figures to do the same this season as reports are saying that Bell has the #2 RB spot locked up. He’ll steal touches and TD’s from McCoy, especially at the goal line, and the Eagles also employed FB Leonard Weaver last season at RB many times who also took some TD’s. With such a committee in the Eagles’ offensive system, McCoy will be lucky to have 800 yds and 6 TD’s. Respectable, but not what you’d want from a #1 or #2 RB in a 10 team league.

4. Kevin Walter WR (Texans): Not that he was going to be a top 100 guy anyway after doing nothing last year, but Walter is also being pressed hard for his #2 WR spot on the team thanks to Jacoby Jones showing flashes of being a very good receiver last season. Walter had a very good season in 2008, but those days are gone.

5. Kyle Orton QB (Broncos): WR Brandon Marshall is gone, leaving Orton with Eddie Royal, Jabbar Gaffney, or Demaryius Thomas as the #1 WR, and Brandon Stokely and Brandon Lloyd on the bench. Orton was a repectable QB last season for the Broncos, but the seemingly schizophrenic coach Josh McDaniels is coy when asked about his QB situation after drafting Tim Tebow in the 1st round and trading for Brady Quinn. McDaniels won’t even say who the starter will be when the season opens, and with this type of situation, even if Orton starts the first few weeks, if he performs in a manner that is less than stellar, McDaniels may yank him for one of his shiny new football throwing toys.

As if we didn’t know this already, Brett Favre is coming back. No, he hasn’t announced it yet. But he has announced it if you speak Favre-glish.  It’s the language that only Favre knows how to speak since – after all- it is his language.  And he doesn’t need to say a word. 

If you do listen to what he speaks, you’d believe that this is a man in limbo pondering his future.  All he will say is that he is considering it and talking it over with his family.  That’s Favre-glish for “I’m pretending to be undecided until maybe the last 2 weeks of training camp, maybe later to avoid going through ‘two a days’.”

Favre has given his sign for the year (as if we needed one) that he will indeed be back for a 20th NFL season.  He first had surgery on his left ankle to clean up some scar tissue and bone spurs.  Now, he’s back to practicing football with high school kids at Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, Miss.

Favre will continue to ‘decide’ for at least the next 2 weeks.  After that, he will officially announce to all people who do not understand Favre-glish that he will be returning.

Brad Childress and the Minnesota Vikings, myself, and every other NFL writer out there have known this for months.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Chargers WR Vincent Jackson will be suspended for 3 games in 2010 for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.

Jackson pleaded guilty in February to driving while intoxicated. This is Jackson’s second conviction for the same charge.

No word on whether or not he will appeal.

By Bob Metz

WR Steve Smith, Carolina branch (Panthers) has a broken arm he suffered in a flag football game according to Mike Cranston, AP sports writer.

Smith had surgery Sunday night on the same arm he broke against the New York Giants last season, though not in the same place. The team does not have a timetable for his return.

However, all may not be lost, fantasy owners because though Smith will miss the start of training camp for certain, the reports at this early stage sound optimistic about Smith possibly being able to play by week 1 of the regular season.

Either way, I wouldn’t count on Smith being a top notch WR this season.

By Bob Metz

Click for an updated version of my 2010 fantasy mock draft!

http://nfldraftmock.com/2010-nfl-fantasy-football-mock-draft/

By Bob Metz

As your fantasy football expert, I am here with a warning.  Do not commit these common fantsy draft mistakes.  If you do, you’ll likely miss your playoffs and wish you had heeded these 5 deadly sins of fantasy drafting:

1.      Taking the D/ST or DEF and K positions early:

I’ll be short and sweet here.  The D/ST or DEF and K positions can wait until the end of your draft.  There generally is not that much discrepancy in defensive point totals for the top 10 defenses in the league each week.  In addition, D/ST stats vary from year to year because there are so many altering factors.  Every single year I find a D/ST that surprises and does very well in fantasy points on the waiver wire and I end up dropping the one I drafted by mid-season.  If you drafted yours in the 8^th round (in a 16 round league), you could have gotten a good WR or backup QB in that spot but wasted the pick only to find out that the better defense was never even drafted.  The only thing I’ll say about kickers is that they are a bigger waste of a draft pick than the defenses.  Please don’t come crying to me if you lose your league and you drafted a D/ST, DEF, or K before the third to last round.  I’ll shun you!

2.      Drafting with your heart instead of your head:

‘Homerism’ affects fantasy owners in ways that can really affect their teams.  You may love your (insert team name here) but don’t draft a player because he plays for your favorite team.  Draft a player because you really believe that he can help your fantasy team.  I’ve seen owners draft players from their team because they let their heart convince their mind that it was a good move.  Needless to say, they didn’t even have a chance to win.  The same can be said for not drafting players from teams you dislike.  You may pass on a player that can be the difference for your fantasy team.  He could be that one missing piece who has a career year and wins you your championship!  Pretend in your draft that each player plays for a team you like, and take the best player available that suits your team’s needs.  Use your head instead of your heart, and you’ll have a much greater chance to win.

3.      Going into the draft without a plan:

This is a very important, but simple concept.  Look at bye weeks for players you want to draft, participate in some interactive mock drafts to get a good feel, or – most importantly – read my 2010 NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFT, and have a plan in place before your draft.  Are you going to take the best player available each round?  Drafting RB’s first?  Taking a QB first to assure that you get your guy?  When should you start drafting WR’s?  In the draft, the clock is running.  A plan will guide you so you don’t run out of time on a pick and draft players you really don’t want by mistake.  It will also help you to visualize scenarios that may occur and be more capable of making a good decision if they do.

4.      Drafting without regard to bye weeks:

When you are drafting, pay close attention to bye weeks.  If you draft too many players that have the same bye week, you’ll have no players to use for that particular week and will likely end up trading for a lower valued player or dropping one of your good players to pick one up from the free agent list.  This is another reason why it is a must that you go into your draft with a plan of some sort.  At minimum, look at bye week conflicts.  If necessary, make a cheat sheet of players listed by position and bye week.  This could help you in your decision making while you’re on the clock! 

5.      Not doing your homework:

My second grader comes home from school each day with a math page and a spelling page to return the following day.  He doesn’t always get the answers right, but being the attentive father that I am, I check his work for accuracy.  I won’t give him the answers, but I will guide him by showing him what he did wrong and asking him to do it again, possibly with a pointer or two.  My son is an Honor Roll student.  He gets good grades at crunch time on tests. What does this have to do with your fantasy draft?  He wouldn’t be an honor roll student or get those good grades if he didn’t work at it.  If he didn’t do his homework.  The same goes for a fantasy owner.  Sure, one year an owner could surprise and even win a league without studying much.  But if you really want to be a good fantasy player, do your homework.  Look at statistics from a particular player for the past 2 years.  Find out if injuries played a factor in a down year, if any roster changes might affect a certain player, and even the current NFL schedule for his team.  I don’t expect you to check out every player, but it does wonders if you do a little research on at least a few and look at fantasy trends from the prior season.  They could give you clues to get an edge on your opponent.

2010 NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFT!! 

http://nfldraftmock.com/2010-nfl-fantasy-football-mock-draft/

By Bob Metz

Each season, there are players who excel and go above and beyond expectations and have enormous fantasy stats.  Likewise each season, fantasy owners make the mistake of expecting the same from them the following season.  Some players have team changes which can seriously impact their star players’ production in a very negative way, yet they still get drafted high based on their prior season’s production.  With this in mind, I offer to you my top 5 players for whom you should draft with the understanding that they likely will decline to varying degrees in fantasy points this season:

1.  Chris Johnson – Titans RB: 

Surprised to see his name here?  You shouldn’t be.  Johnson became the 6th player in NFL history to amass 2,000 rushing yds from scrimmage in 2009.  There is a reason why there have only been 6.  It’s very hard to do.  No one has done it in multiple seasons, and while Johnson has the talent to be a Hall Of Famer one day, history says that the 2,000 yd mark won’t happen again for the star RB.  This in addition to the news coming out of Titans camp that the team is expected to give Johnson less carries this season, so their star doesn’t wear out.  Vince Young is expected to pass more this season, and defenses will no doubt be scheming against Johnson defensively.  He’s no doubt still a top 3 pick, and will probably go #1 more often than not, but a repeat of last year isn’t realistic.

2.  Ray Rice – Ravens RB:

Rice’s stats last season were 254 carries for 1,339 yds plus 78 receptions for 702 yds.  Those are good numbers that won’t be repeated this year.  Last season, Joe Flacco could only rely on aging veteran Derrick Mason at WR, so Rice was his outlet.  Rice also saw more carries as a result of the lack of a passing game.  This offseason, the Ravens showed that they want to be more committed to the pass by acquiring WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth to add to the returning Mason.  The addition of the sure-handed Boldin will give the Ravens passing game a huge boost and they will probably use Stallworth in the slot.  Mason will probably be the #2 WR with Boldin as the #1.  Flacco will have options this season and will not have to rely so heavily on the running backs to catch passes out of the backfield.  The Ravens did try to pass downfield last year, but there was nobody they could count on to consistently catch passes.  This year they will have that.  Also not to be overlooked is the fact that the Ravens gave a lot of goal line and short yardage carries to Willis McGahee, who had 14 total TD’s last season to Rice’s 8.  Rice will be drafted as a top 5 pick, but his stats may disappoint for being drafted so high.

Don’t forget to see my 2010 NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFT to help guide you!!!

3.  Steven Jackson – Rams RB:

Yes, I know, the top 3 are all RB’s.  But hear me out yet again.  324 carries puts a lot of wear and tear on a player’s body.  Jackson got that many carries for 1,416 yds in ’09, and that was because the Rams had no other offensive players who could be counted on.  Jackson carried the team on his back last season and it is showing in a literal sense, as the Rams star had back surgery in the offseason.  If this surgery doesn’t heal just right, Jackson may have a harder time carrying the load yet again in 2010.  Let’s also not forget that Jackson played in 15 games last year, but hasn’t played a full season since 2006.  He’ll get his 6th straight 1,000 yard season, but far shy of 1,700 total yards.

4. Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals WR:

Easy.  Kurt Warner is gone, and Fitz will be catching passes (if he gets the ball to him) from Matt Leinart.  In 2006, Leinart played in 12 games.  That was the only year in Larry’s career where he failed to reach the 1,000 receiving yards mark other than his rookie year.  Leinart threw for 12 TD’s that season and Fitzgerald only caught 6 of them.  Leinart threw for 12 INT’s that season, 1 more than the number of TD’s he threw.  Last season Leinart played in 8 games.  He threw 0 TDs and 3 INT’s.  With the Cards trading WR Anquan Boldin, defenses can now dedicate more attention than ever to covering Larry.  The Cardinals are also attempting to get more involved in the running game.  This leaves Larry Fitzgerald to be a fantasy bust this season, and he’ll be the second or third WR off the board in your fantasy draft.  Do not be the one who makes this mistake.

5.  Thomas Jones – Chiefs RB:

Jones was the featured runner for the Jets last season and had 331 carries for 1,402 yds and 14 TD’s.  What a difference one offseason can make.  The Jets decided to part ways with Jones, and signed Ladanian Tomlinson to go alongside Shonn Greene.  Jones is now a Chief and they already have a young feature back in Jamaal Charles.  How the carries get split between the two is yet to be determined, but in no way will Jones get as many carries as Charles, barring injury.  Jones is 31, and most running backs start their decline at 30, so Jones will probably be used on third downs, short yardage, and to spell Charles during games.  Even if he does get more carries than I’m expecting, it will be well shy of 300, and Jones will likely have less than 1,000 yards rushing.  Look for a big drop off in 2010.