Every year around this time, NFL teams are getting their draft boards ready because with the NFL Draft only weeks away,  final boards are being put together, causing many players to rise or fall, as their Draft value  is solidified.

Due to the importance of the position, quarterbacks always seem to be on the rise as the Draft nears, as teams without franchise quarterbacks are desperately seeking to acquire one. Following the Redskins trade with the Rams to secure Robert Griffin III and the no.2 overall pick, Ryan Tannehill was the big mover, as he went from an expected mid-to-late first round pick, to a potential top-five selection, with the number of potential franchise quarterbacks dwindling fast.

Teams such as Cleveland, Miami, Arizona and Seattle could all use upgrades at the position. Yet, the Cardinals seem content to roll with either Kevin Kolb or John Skelton, while similarly, the Seahawks starter will likely emerge from the competition between incumbent starter Tavaris Jackson and free-agent signee Matt Flynn from Green Bay.

Right now, it seems the teams most interested in landing Tannehill are Cleveland and Miami. The Browns hold the no.4 pick, therefore, they want Tannehill at that spot, he should be there for them. He makes sense in Cleveland, cause the Browns utilize the west coast offense, which is what Tannehill ran in college at Texas A&M, where current Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman was his head coach.

Its hard to say if the Browns interest in Tannehill at no.4 is genuine or a smokescreen, but my take on the situation is the Browns are interested, just maybe not enough to use a top-five pick on him. With that in mind, I also don’t see Miami trading up into the top-five to acquire Tannehill. Essentially, the two teams are playing a game of chicken waiting for someone to blink. If the Browns want him at no.4 they can take him, if not, he should fall to Miami at no.8.

Scouts around the league are in agreement that Tannehill has the potential to be a starting quarterback, yet he has limited experience, starting only 19 games in college. He posted impressive numbers with the Aggies, throwing 42 touchdowns compared to 21 interceptions for his career and completed 61.6% of his passes this season, his only full-year as a starting quarterback.  He has good size and athleticism, above average arm strength and accuracy, plus still has room to develop.

Considering Tannehill’s potential, it would not be at all surprising if Cleveland pulled the trigger at no.4, they need a franchise guy and it’s unclear if Colt McCoy can be it. Drafting Tannehill would allow the Browns to keep McCoy on the field for now, giving them a better idea what kind of player he is, while Tannehill develops.

On the other hand, the Browns are desperately in need of some skill players, such as running back Trent Richardson and wide receiver Justin Blackmon. Fortunately, the Browns have plenty of flexibility because they hold the 22nd and 37th picks in the draft as well, so they could potentially pass on Tannehill, allowing Miami to select him at no.8, then pick Richardson, who would fill an immediate need and instantly add a playmaking threat to the offense. The Browns could then address quarterback with one of their next two selections.

While there is no consensus no.4 quarterback in this draft now, the candidates include Brandon Weeden, Nick Foles, Brock Osweiler and Kirk Cousins. Foles and Cousins are seen solidly in the second, Weeden and Osweiler both merit first-round consideration.

From my perspective, Osweiler is way too risky to pick in the first round, thus Weeden is clearly the fourth quarterback prospect and is comparable to Tannehill in the eyes of some. In two years as a starter at Oklahoma State, he threw 71 touchdowns compared to just 26 interceptions, while completing 69.7% of his passes.

Talent-wise, Weeden is worthy of being selected in the first round, what might hold him back is his age. He will enter the NFL next season as a 28-year old rookie, which is not ideal. However, quarterbacks such as Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon blossomed late and won MVP awards, so whose to say Weeden can’t follow in their footsteps.

When it’s all said and done, we may just see three quarterback taken in the first round, but when it comes down to it, quarterbacks drive success in this league, so one with first-round talent would be hard to pass up on, thus it would not  come as a shock to no one, if a guy like Brandon Weeden comes off the board a little earlier than expected.

Randy Moss has been traded from the New England Patriots to the Minnesota Vikings, the team that drafted him, for a 3rd round draftpick on Wednesday.  The Patriots receiver has verbalized recently that he has felt unwanted in New England when they refused to extend his contract that ends at the end of this season. 

Fantasy wise, this puts the values of Moss up significantly, considering that Moss will be the only reliable  receiver on the struggling Vikings pass offense until Sidney Rice comes back from a hip injury that is supposed to keep him out until at least week 6, probably longer. 

This also raises the value of Brett Favre, who has disappointed fantasy owners thus far with only TE Visanthe Shiancoe as the Vikes only pass catcher who has proved reliable in the first 3 games of the Vikings season.  Having Moss to throw to figures to make Favre’s numbers much better.  This goes up even more when Rice returns.

On the New England side, WR Brandon Tate, who has wowed everyone with his extraordinary soecial teams play has a major increase in his value as well, as he reportedly will become the Pats #1 receiver.  Tate should be added in every league, and he is probably available as of this writing at almost 10 am Wednesday.  Get him if you can.  He may not be what we expect, or he may save your season.

St Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson stained his groin in Sunday’s game against the Washington Redskins.  If Jackson misses any time, backup RB Kenneth Darby should be a good option if you are looking for a RB option  for week 4, especially with bye weeks starting.  Darby finished the game with 14 rushes for 49 yards and one TD,  and one catch for 8 yards in relief.  He did share carries with Keith Toston, but Darby was the one with the most carries of the two as well as the score.

My top 10 D/ST’s’s for fantasy football.  In my opinion, this is how the season’s D/ST’s should shake out in terms of fantasy scoring.

1. New York Jets

2. Baltimore Ravens

3. Minnesota Vikings 

4. Philadelphia Eagles

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

6. New Orleans Saints

7. Cincinatti Bengals

8. Dallas Cowboys

9. New York Giants

10. San Francisco 49ers.

My top 10 QB’s for fantasy football.  In my opinion, this is how the season’s QB’s should shake out in terms of fantasy scoring.

1. Drew Brees -NO

2. Aaron Rodgers – GB

3. Peyton Manning – IND 

4. Matt Schaub- HOU

5. Tony Romo – DAL

6. Tom Brady – NE

7. Philip Rivers – SD

8. Kevin Kolb – PHI

9. Joe Flacco – BAL

10. Brett Favre – MIN

As off-season camps start wrapping up and the pre-season just around the corner, fantasy drafts everywhere are getting ready to take place. I am here to offer 5 players who’s stock is falling in fantasy drafts. These are in no particular order, and I’m not saying not to draft these players, I’m saying be careful where you draft them.

1. Kenny Britt WR (Titans): Britt was in my 5 fantasy players on the rise just over a month ago, as his promise was evident late last season. Word from Titans camp that he has been dealing with numerous small injuries and is having a pretty bad camp, however lands him on this list today. I’d stay away from Britt until at least the 7th or 8th round.

2. Rashard Mendenhall RB (Steelers): T Willie Colon is out for the season with a torn achilles and that spells trouble for an already uncertain offensive line. The Steelers hope that rookie C/G Maurkice Pouncey can become the player they need him to be – and fast! With the O-Line’s best player out of the fold and an uncertainty in the passing game while Ben Roethlisberger is out, that means less and smaller holes for Mendenhall. The Steelers RB is going in rounds 2-3 in most mock drafts and I’m telling you that is much too high. Take a pass on him unless you get him at a great bargain.

3. LeSean McCoy RB (Eagles): Brian Westbrook he is not and he didn’t show much last year to suggest that he can handle the starter role. Perhaps more importantly is the Eagles’ penchant for using too many RB’s, especially near the goal line. This offseason, the Eagles signed RB Mike Bell who played with the Saints last year and vultured many a TD from Pierre Thomas.

He figures to do the same this season as reports are saying that Bell has the #2 RB spot locked up. He’ll steal touches and TD’s from McCoy, especially at the goal line, and the Eagles also employed FB Leonard Weaver last season at RB many times who also took some TD’s. With such a committee in the Eagles’ offensive system, McCoy will be lucky to have 800 yds and 6 TD’s. Respectable, but not what you’d want from a #1 or #2 RB in a 10 team league.

4. Kevin Walter WR (Texans): Not that he was going to be a top 100 guy anyway after doing nothing last year, but Walter is also being pressed hard for his #2 WR spot on the team thanks to Jacoby Jones showing flashes of being a very good receiver last season. Walter had a very good season in 2008, but those days are gone.

5. Kyle Orton QB (Broncos): WR Brandon Marshall is gone, leaving Orton with Eddie Royal, Jabbar Gaffney, or Demaryius Thomas as the #1 WR, and Brandon Stokely and Brandon Lloyd on the bench. Orton was a repectable QB last season for the Broncos, but the seemingly schizophrenic coach Josh McDaniels is coy when asked about his QB situation after drafting Tim Tebow in the 1st round and trading for Brady Quinn. McDaniels won’t even say who the starter will be when the season opens, and with this type of situation, even if Orton starts the first few weeks, if he performs in a manner that is less than stellar, McDaniels may yank him for one of his shiny new football throwing toys.

As if we didn’t know this already, Brett Favre is coming back. No, he hasn’t announced it yet. But he has announced it if you speak Favre-glish.  It’s the language that only Favre knows how to speak since – after all- it is his language.  And he doesn’t need to say a word. 

If you do listen to what he speaks, you’d believe that this is a man in limbo pondering his future.  All he will say is that he is considering it and talking it over with his family.  That’s Favre-glish for “I’m pretending to be undecided until maybe the last 2 weeks of training camp, maybe later to avoid going through ‘two a days’.”

Favre has given his sign for the year (as if we needed one) that he will indeed be back for a 20th NFL season.  He first had surgery on his left ankle to clean up some scar tissue and bone spurs.  Now, he’s back to practicing football with high school kids at Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, Miss.

Favre will continue to ‘decide’ for at least the next 2 weeks.  After that, he will officially announce to all people who do not understand Favre-glish that he will be returning.

Brad Childress and the Minnesota Vikings, myself, and every other NFL writer out there have known this for months.

By Bob Metz

Click for an updated version of my 2010 fantasy mock draft!

http://nfldraftmock.com/2010-nfl-fantasy-football-mock-draft/

By Bob Metz

Each season, there are players who excel and go above and beyond expectations and have enormous fantasy stats.  Likewise each season, fantasy owners make the mistake of expecting the same from them the following season.  Some players have team changes which can seriously impact their star players’ production in a very negative way, yet they still get drafted high based on their prior season’s production.  With this in mind, I offer to you my top 5 players for whom you should draft with the understanding that they likely will decline to varying degrees in fantasy points this season:

1.  Chris Johnson – Titans RB: 

Surprised to see his name here?  You shouldn’t be.  Johnson became the 6th player in NFL history to amass 2,000 rushing yds from scrimmage in 2009.  There is a reason why there have only been 6.  It’s very hard to do.  No one has done it in multiple seasons, and while Johnson has the talent to be a Hall Of Famer one day, history says that the 2,000 yd mark won’t happen again for the star RB.  This in addition to the news coming out of Titans camp that the team is expected to give Johnson less carries this season, so their star doesn’t wear out.  Vince Young is expected to pass more this season, and defenses will no doubt be scheming against Johnson defensively.  He’s no doubt still a top 3 pick, and will probably go #1 more often than not, but a repeat of last year isn’t realistic.

2.  Ray Rice – Ravens RB:

Rice’s stats last season were 254 carries for 1,339 yds plus 78 receptions for 702 yds.  Those are good numbers that won’t be repeated this year.  Last season, Joe Flacco could only rely on aging veteran Derrick Mason at WR, so Rice was his outlet.  Rice also saw more carries as a result of the lack of a passing game.  This offseason, the Ravens showed that they want to be more committed to the pass by acquiring WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth to add to the returning Mason.  The addition of the sure-handed Boldin will give the Ravens passing game a huge boost and they will probably use Stallworth in the slot.  Mason will probably be the #2 WR with Boldin as the #1.  Flacco will have options this season and will not have to rely so heavily on the running backs to catch passes out of the backfield.  The Ravens did try to pass downfield last year, but there was nobody they could count on to consistently catch passes.  This year they will have that.  Also not to be overlooked is the fact that the Ravens gave a lot of goal line and short yardage carries to Willis McGahee, who had 14 total TD’s last season to Rice’s 8.  Rice will be drafted as a top 5 pick, but his stats may disappoint for being drafted so high.

Don’t forget to see my 2010 NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFT to help guide you!!!

3.  Steven Jackson – Rams RB:

Yes, I know, the top 3 are all RB’s.  But hear me out yet again.  324 carries puts a lot of wear and tear on a player’s body.  Jackson got that many carries for 1,416 yds in ’09, and that was because the Rams had no other offensive players who could be counted on.  Jackson carried the team on his back last season and it is showing in a literal sense, as the Rams star had back surgery in the offseason.  If this surgery doesn’t heal just right, Jackson may have a harder time carrying the load yet again in 2010.  Let’s also not forget that Jackson played in 15 games last year, but hasn’t played a full season since 2006.  He’ll get his 6th straight 1,000 yard season, but far shy of 1,700 total yards.

4. Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals WR:

Easy.  Kurt Warner is gone, and Fitz will be catching passes (if he gets the ball to him) from Matt Leinart.  In 2006, Leinart played in 12 games.  That was the only year in Larry’s career where he failed to reach the 1,000 receiving yards mark other than his rookie year.  Leinart threw for 12 TD’s that season and Fitzgerald only caught 6 of them.  Leinart threw for 12 INT’s that season, 1 more than the number of TD’s he threw.  Last season Leinart played in 8 games.  He threw 0 TDs and 3 INT’s.  With the Cards trading WR Anquan Boldin, defenses can now dedicate more attention than ever to covering Larry.  The Cardinals are also attempting to get more involved in the running game.  This leaves Larry Fitzgerald to be a fantasy bust this season, and he’ll be the second or third WR off the board in your fantasy draft.  Do not be the one who makes this mistake.

5.  Thomas Jones – Chiefs RB:

Jones was the featured runner for the Jets last season and had 331 carries for 1,402 yds and 14 TD’s.  What a difference one offseason can make.  The Jets decided to part ways with Jones, and signed Ladanian Tomlinson to go alongside Shonn Greene.  Jones is now a Chief and they already have a young feature back in Jamaal Charles.  How the carries get split between the two is yet to be determined, but in no way will Jones get as many carries as Charles, barring injury.  Jones is 31, and most running backs start their decline at 30, so Jones will probably be used on third downs, short yardage, and to spell Charles during games.  Even if he does get more carries than I’m expecting, it will be well shy of 300, and Jones will likely have less than 1,000 yards rushing.  Look for a big drop off in 2010.