1. Drew Brees -NO

2. Aaron Rodgers – GB

3. Peyton Manning – IND 

4. Matt Schaub- HOU

5. Tony Romo – DAL

6. Tom Brady – NE

7. Philip Rivers – SD

8. Kevin Kolb – PHI

9. Joe Flacco – BAL

10. Brett Favre – MIN

1. Kenny Britt WR (Titans): Britt was in my 5 fantasy players on the rise just over a month ago, as his promise was evident late last season. Word from Titans camp that he has been dealing with numerous small injuries and is having a pretty bad camp, however lands him on this list today. I’d stay away from Britt until at least the 7th or 8th round.

2. Rashard Mendenhall RB (Steelers): T Willie Colon is out for the season with a torn achilles and that spells trouble for an already uncertain offensive line. The Steelers hope that rookie C/G Maurkice Pouncey can become the player they need him to be – and fast! With the O-Line’s best player out of the fold and an uncertainty in the passing game while Ben Roethlisberger is out, that means less and smaller holes for Mendenhall. The Steelers RB is going in rounds 2-3 in most mock drafts and I’m telling you that is much too high. Take a pass on him unless you get him at a great bargain.

3. LeSean McCoy RB (Eagles): Brian Westbrook he is not and he didn’t show much last year to suggest that he can handle the starter role. Perhaps more importantly is the Eagles’ penchant for using too many RB’s, especially near the goal line. This offseason, the Eagles signed RB Mike Bell who played with the Saints last year and vultured many a TD from Pierre Thomas.

He figures to do the same this season as reports are saying that Bell has the #2 RB spot locked up. He’ll steal touches and TD’s from McCoy, especially at the goal line, and the Eagles also employed FB Leonard Weaver last season at RB many times who also took some TD’s. With such a committee in the Eagles’ offensive system, McCoy will be lucky to have 800 yds and 6 TD’s. Respectable, but not what you’d want from a #1 or #2 RB in a 10 team league.

4. Kevin Walter WR (Texans): Not that he was going to be a top 100 guy anyway after doing nothing last year, but Walter is also being pressed hard for his #2 WR spot on the team thanks to Jacoby Jones showing flashes of being a very good receiver last season. Walter had a very good season in 2008, but those days are gone.

5. Kyle Orton QB (Broncos): WR Brandon Marshall is gone, leaving Orton with Eddie Royal, Jabbar Gaffney, or Demaryius Thomas as the #1 WR, and Brandon Stokely and Brandon Lloyd on the bench. Orton was a repectable QB last season for the Broncos, but the seemingly schizophrenic coach Josh McDaniels is coy when asked about his QB situation after drafting Tim Tebow in the 1st round and trading for Brady Quinn. McDaniels won’t even say who the starter will be when the season opens, and with this type of situation, even if Orton starts the first few weeks, if he performs in a manner that is less than stellar, McDaniels may yank him for one of his shiny new football throwing toys.

Sometimes we all wonder what people are thinking. Here are some examples: Why did George W. Bush attach Iraq after we were attacked by terrorists from Afghanistan? Why do most people only care about a charity after it affects them personally, when the problem for others has been there all along? Why is abortion legal, but assisted suicide illegal?

Thankfully, what I am talking about today isn’t that heavy a subject. I’m wondering why owner Bud Adams and the Titans’ suits aren’t re-doing Chris Johnson’s contract. What are they thinking? While the Titans aren’t known for paying players more than they’re worth (see: Albert Haynesworth, Steve McNair, and Kyle Vanden bosch) they cannot actually think that a talent like Chris Johnson, in only his third season as a pro would be a bad investment. Sure, running backs wear down and some might have one injury and never play the same again, but Johnson became the 6th player in NFL history to get over 2,000 yds in a season last year.

Now he’s not in camp because he’s scheduled to make a base salary of only $550,000 this season, per his rookie contract. I know some are thinking ‘I’d sure like to have his problem’. Yes, I get it. I feel the same way. I’d love to make that kind of money. But this is the NFL today, and in the NFL that is a very low salary for someone of Johnson’s accomplishments especially given his speed, age, and talent. Not since Barry Sanders have we seen someone with so much talent and potetial.

Let’s look at Johnson’s peers. Reggie Bush, a role player who doesn’t even start will make a reported $13.5 million in base salary this season. Larry Johnson signed a deal with the Redskins that will give the 30 year old RB who isn’t expected to start a base of $3.9 million. Looking at these numbers, it really makes us scratch our collective heads. Why would the Titans want to mess up a good thing when they’ve got it?

VY was finally clicking last year, the Titans finished strong, Johnson was a record breaker and a money maker for the Titans, and there is optimism for the upcoming season. TITANS: PAY THE MAN NOW! If something doesn’t happen soon to get Johnson into camp and get the Titans ready for the season, this could be another very disappointing seson for the Tennessee Titans.

Each season, there are players who excel and go above and beyond expectations and have enormous fantasy stats.  Likewise each season, fantasy owners make the mistake of expecting the same from them the following season.  Some players have team changes which can seriously impact their star players’ production in a very negative way, yet they still get drafted high based on their prior season’s production.  With this in mind, I offer to you my top 5 players for whom you should draft with the understanding that they likely will decline to varying degrees in fantasy points this season:

1.  Chris Johnson – Titans RB: 

Surprised to see his name here?  You shouldn’t be.  Johnson became the 6th player in NFL history to amass 2,000 rushing yds from scrimmage in 2009.  There is a reason why there have only been 6.  It’s very hard to do.  No one has done it in multiple seasons, and while Johnson has the talent to be a Hall Of Famer one day, history says that the 2,000 yd mark won’t happen again for the star RB.  This in addition to the news coming out of Titans camp that the team is expected to give Johnson less carries this season, so their star doesn’t wear out.  Vince Young is expected to pass more this season, and defenses will no doubt be scheming against Johnson defensively.  He’s no doubt still a top 3 pick, and will probably go #1 more often than not, but a repeat of last year isn’t realistic.

2.  Ray Rice – Ravens RB:

Rice’s stats last season were 254 carries for 1,339 yds plus 78 receptions for 702 yds.  Those are good numbers that won’t be repeated this year.  Last season, Joe Flacco could only rely on aging veteran Derrick Mason at WR, so Rice was his outlet.  Rice also saw more carries as a result of the lack of a passing game.  This offseason, the Ravens showed that they want to be more committed to the pass by acquiring WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth to add to the returning Mason.  The addition of the sure-handed Boldin will give the Ravens passing game a huge boost and they will probably use Stallworth in the slot.  Mason will probably be the #2 WR with Boldin as the #1.  Flacco will have options this season and will not have to rely so heavily on the running backs to catch passes out of the backfield.  The Ravens did try to pass downfield last year, but there was nobody they could count on to consistently catch passes.  This year they will have that.  Also not to be overlooked is the fact that the Ravens gave a lot of goal line and short yardage carries to Willis McGahee, who had 14 total TD’s last season to Rice’s 8.  Rice will be drafted as a top 5 pick, but his stats may disappoint for being drafted so high.

Don’t forget to see my 2010 NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFT to help guide you!!!

3.  Steven Jackson – Rams RB:

Yes, I know, the top 3 are all RB’s.  But hear me out yet again.  324 carries puts a lot of wear and tear on a player’s body.  Jackson got that many carries for 1,416 yds in ’09, and that was because the Rams had no other offensive players who could be counted on.  Jackson carried the team on his back last season and it is showing in a literal sense, as the Rams star had back surgery in the offseason.  If this surgery doesn’t heal just right, Jackson may have a harder time carrying the load yet again in 2010.  Let’s also not forget that Jackson played in 15 games last year, but hasn’t played a full season since 2006.  He’ll get his 6th straight 1,000 yard season, but far shy of 1,700 total yards.

4. Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals WR:

Easy.  Kurt Warner is gone, and Fitz will be catching passes (if he gets the ball to him) from Matt Leinart.  In 2006, Leinart played in 12 games.  That was the only year in Larry’s career where he failed to reach the 1,000 receiving yards mark other than his rookie year.  Leinart threw for 12 TD’s that season and Fitzgerald only caught 6 of them.  Leinart threw for 12 INT’s that season, 1 more than the number of TD’s he threw.  Last season Leinart played in 8 games.  He threw 0 TDs and 3 INT’s.  With the Cards trading WR Anquan Boldin, defenses can now dedicate more attention than ever to covering Larry.  The Cardinals are also attempting to get more involved in the running game.  This leaves Larry Fitzgerald to be a fantasy bust this season, and he’ll be the second or third WR off the board in your fantasy draft.  Do not be the one who makes this mistake.

5.  Thomas Jones – Chiefs RB:

Jones was the featured runner for the Jets last season and had 331 carries for 1,402 yds and 14 TD’s.  What a difference one offseason can make.  The Jets decided to part ways with Jones, and signed Ladanian Tomlinson to go alongside Shonn Greene.  Jones is now a Chief and they already have a young feature back in Jamaal Charles.  How the carries get split between the two is yet to be determined, but in no way will Jones get as many carries as Charles, barring injury.  Jones is 31, and most running backs start their decline at 30, so Jones will probably be used on third downs, short yardage, and to spell Charles during games.  Even if he does get more carries than I’m expecting, it will be well shy of 300, and Jones will likely have less than 1,000 yards rushing.  Look for a big drop off in 2010.