This week, Mike Vick was announced as the new starting QB for the Eagles over Kevin Kolb.  Today, is was announced that Bruce Gradkowski will be the new starter for the Oakland Raiders over Jason Campbell.  Obviously, if you planned to start Kolb or Campbell this week, this will change your plans but there are more fantasy lineup implications to this than just those two. 

Gradkowski loved throwing the ball to Louis Murphy last season.  Gradkowski played 4 full games after getting the nod over Jamarcus Russell and before going down with an injury in week 14.  In those 4 games, Gradkowski threw 6 TD passes.  3 of those 6 were to Murphy.  Murphy without Gradkowski?  1 TD. 

Yardage wasn’t that much for Murphy even with Gradkowski, so I wouldn’t make him a starter at WR if you have better options until you see more yardage production.  But if you are looking for a flex play in a 12 team league or some extra depth at WR, Murphy is a good pickup if you can get him.  Grab him now if you want him.

As for the Eagles; Kolb owners (especially those who took him early in drafts) are not happy today.  I hope you had the sense to draft a quality backup if you drafted Kolb without knowing how good he’d be.  If you didn’t, try to grab Vick if he’s still availabe.  If not, see if you can get Vince Young, Josh Freeman, Alex Smith, or Chad Henne off of the waiver wire.  If not, make a trade.  You might get a guy like Joe Flacco cheap right now and relish in it when he finds his rhythm.

Bump up DeSean Jackson in value, as well as Jeremy Maclin now that Vick is in.  Brent Celek may be valued lower, as Vick doesn’t usually go to the Tight End as much as Kolb or McNabb.  So grab a good backup TE if you don’t have one. 

As always, ask questions if you like, and I will answer them as I see them.  Look for Start ‘Em and Bench ‘Em for week 3 in the next couple of days.

My top 10 TE’s for fantasy football.  In my opinion, this is how the season’s TE’s should shake out in terms of fantasy scoring.

1. Antonio Gates – SD

2. Dallas Clark – IND

3. Brent Celek – PHI

4. Jason Witten – DAL

5.Vernon Davis - SF

6. Owen Daniels - HOU

7. Jermichael Findley - GB

8. Tony Gonzalez - ATL

9. Visanthe Shiancoe -MIN

10. Zach Miller – OAK

My top 10 WR’s for fantasy football.  In my opinion, this is how the season’s WR’s should shake out in terms of fantasy scoring.

1. Andre Johnson – HOU

2. Miles Austin - DAL

3. Roddy White – ATL

4. Greg Jennings – GB

5. Randy Moss – NE

6. Steve Smith – CAR

7. Marques Colston – NO

8. Brandon Marshall – MIA

9. Reggie Wayne – IND

10. DeSean Jackson – PHI

My top 10 RB’s for fantasy football.  In my opinion, this is how the season’s RB’s should shake out in terms of fantasy scoring.

1. Chris Johnson – TEN

2. Adrian Peterson – MIN

3. Ray Rice – BAL

4. Michael Turner – ATL

5. Maurice Jones-Drew – JAC

6. Frank Gore – SF

7. Steven Jackson – STL

8. DeAngelo Williams – CAR

9. Cedric Benson – CIN

10. Ryan Grant – GB

As off-season camps start wrapping up and the pre-season just around the corner, fantasy drafts everywhere are getting ready to take place. I am here to offer 5 players who’s stock is falling in fantasy drafts. These are in no particular order, and I’m not saying not to draft these players, I’m saying be careful where you draft them.

1. Kenny Britt WR (Titans): Britt was in my 5 fantasy players on the rise just over a month ago, as his promise was evident late last season. Word from Titans camp that he has been dealing with numerous small injuries and is having a pretty bad camp, however lands him on this list today. I’d stay away from Britt until at least the 7th or 8th round.

2. Rashard Mendenhall RB (Steelers): T Willie Colon is out for the season with a torn achilles and that spells trouble for an already uncertain offensive line. The Steelers hope that rookie C/G Maurkice Pouncey can become the player they need him to be – and fast! With the O-Line’s best player out of the fold and an uncertainty in the passing game while Ben Roethlisberger is out, that means less and smaller holes for Mendenhall. The Steelers RB is going in rounds 2-3 in most mock drafts and I’m telling you that is much too high. Take a pass on him unless you get him at a great bargain.

3. LeSean McCoy RB (Eagles): Brian Westbrook he is not and he didn’t show much last year to suggest that he can handle the starter role. Perhaps more importantly is the Eagles’ penchant for using too many RB’s, especially near the goal line. This offseason, the Eagles signed RB Mike Bell who played with the Saints last year and vultured many a TD from Pierre Thomas.

He figures to do the same this season as reports are saying that Bell has the #2 RB spot locked up. He’ll steal touches and TD’s from McCoy, especially at the goal line, and the Eagles also employed FB Leonard Weaver last season at RB many times who also took some TD’s. With such a committee in the Eagles’ offensive system, McCoy will be lucky to have 800 yds and 6 TD’s. Respectable, but not what you’d want from a #1 or #2 RB in a 10 team league.

4. Kevin Walter WR (Texans): Not that he was going to be a top 100 guy anyway after doing nothing last year, but Walter is also being pressed hard for his #2 WR spot on the team thanks to Jacoby Jones showing flashes of being a very good receiver last season. Walter had a very good season in 2008, but those days are gone.

5. Kyle Orton QB (Broncos): WR Brandon Marshall is gone, leaving Orton with Eddie Royal, Jabbar Gaffney, or Demaryius Thomas as the #1 WR, and Brandon Stokely and Brandon Lloyd on the bench. Orton was a repectable QB last season for the Broncos, but the seemingly schizophrenic coach Josh McDaniels is coy when asked about his QB situation after drafting Tim Tebow in the 1st round and trading for Brady Quinn. McDaniels won’t even say who the starter will be when the season opens, and with this type of situation, even if Orton starts the first few weeks, if he performs in a manner that is less than stellar, McDaniels may yank him for one of his shiny new football throwing toys.

As if we didn’t know this already, Brett Favre is coming back. No, he hasn’t announced it yet. But he has announced it if you speak Favre-glish.  It’s the language that only Favre knows how to speak since – after all- it is his language.  And he doesn’t need to say a word. 

If you do listen to what he speaks, you’d believe that this is a man in limbo pondering his future.  All he will say is that he is considering it and talking it over with his family.  That’s Favre-glish for “I’m pretending to be undecided until maybe the last 2 weeks of training camp, maybe later to avoid going through ‘two a days’.”

Favre has given his sign for the year (as if we needed one) that he will indeed be back for a 20th NFL season.  He first had surgery on his left ankle to clean up some scar tissue and bone spurs.  Now, he’s back to practicing football with high school kids at Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, Miss.

Favre will continue to ‘decide’ for at least the next 2 weeks.  After that, he will officially announce to all people who do not understand Favre-glish that he will be returning.

Brad Childress and the Minnesota Vikings, myself, and every other NFL writer out there have known this for months.

By Bob Metz

WR Steve Smith, Carolina branch (Panthers) has a broken arm he suffered in a flag football game according to Mike Cranston, AP sports writer.

Smith had surgery Sunday night on the same arm he broke against the New York Giants last season, though not in the same place. The team does not have a timetable for his return.

However, all may not be lost, fantasy owners because though Smith will miss the start of training camp for certain, the reports at this early stage sound optimistic about Smith possibly being able to play by week 1 of the regular season.

Either way, I wouldn’t count on Smith being a top notch WR this season.

By Bob Metz

Click for an updated version of my 2010 fantasy mock draft!

http://nfldraftmock.com/2010-nfl-fantasy-football-mock-draft/

2010 NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFT!! 

http://nfldraftmock.com/2010-nfl-fantasy-football-mock-draft/

By Bob Metz

Each season, there are players who excel and go above and beyond expectations and have enormous fantasy stats.  Likewise each season, fantasy owners make the mistake of expecting the same from them the following season.  Some players have team changes which can seriously impact their star players’ production in a very negative way, yet they still get drafted high based on their prior season’s production.  With this in mind, I offer to you my top 5 players for whom you should draft with the understanding that they likely will decline to varying degrees in fantasy points this season:

1.  Chris Johnson – Titans RB: 

Surprised to see his name here?  You shouldn’t be.  Johnson became the 6th player in NFL history to amass 2,000 rushing yds from scrimmage in 2009.  There is a reason why there have only been 6.  It’s very hard to do.  No one has done it in multiple seasons, and while Johnson has the talent to be a Hall Of Famer one day, history says that the 2,000 yd mark won’t happen again for the star RB.  This in addition to the news coming out of Titans camp that the team is expected to give Johnson less carries this season, so their star doesn’t wear out.  Vince Young is expected to pass more this season, and defenses will no doubt be scheming against Johnson defensively.  He’s no doubt still a top 3 pick, and will probably go #1 more often than not, but a repeat of last year isn’t realistic.

2.  Ray Rice – Ravens RB:

Rice’s stats last season were 254 carries for 1,339 yds plus 78 receptions for 702 yds.  Those are good numbers that won’t be repeated this year.  Last season, Joe Flacco could only rely on aging veteran Derrick Mason at WR, so Rice was his outlet.  Rice also saw more carries as a result of the lack of a passing game.  This offseason, the Ravens showed that they want to be more committed to the pass by acquiring WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth to add to the returning Mason.  The addition of the sure-handed Boldin will give the Ravens passing game a huge boost and they will probably use Stallworth in the slot.  Mason will probably be the #2 WR with Boldin as the #1.  Flacco will have options this season and will not have to rely so heavily on the running backs to catch passes out of the backfield.  The Ravens did try to pass downfield last year, but there was nobody they could count on to consistently catch passes.  This year they will have that.  Also not to be overlooked is the fact that the Ravens gave a lot of goal line and short yardage carries to Willis McGahee, who had 14 total TD’s last season to Rice’s 8.  Rice will be drafted as a top 5 pick, but his stats may disappoint for being drafted so high.

Don’t forget to see my 2010 NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFT to help guide you!!!

3.  Steven Jackson – Rams RB:

Yes, I know, the top 3 are all RB’s.  But hear me out yet again.  324 carries puts a lot of wear and tear on a player’s body.  Jackson got that many carries for 1,416 yds in ’09, and that was because the Rams had no other offensive players who could be counted on.  Jackson carried the team on his back last season and it is showing in a literal sense, as the Rams star had back surgery in the offseason.  If this surgery doesn’t heal just right, Jackson may have a harder time carrying the load yet again in 2010.  Let’s also not forget that Jackson played in 15 games last year, but hasn’t played a full season since 2006.  He’ll get his 6th straight 1,000 yard season, but far shy of 1,700 total yards.

4. Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals WR:

Easy.  Kurt Warner is gone, and Fitz will be catching passes (if he gets the ball to him) from Matt Leinart.  In 2006, Leinart played in 12 games.  That was the only year in Larry’s career where he failed to reach the 1,000 receiving yards mark other than his rookie year.  Leinart threw for 12 TD’s that season and Fitzgerald only caught 6 of them.  Leinart threw for 12 INT’s that season, 1 more than the number of TD’s he threw.  Last season Leinart played in 8 games.  He threw 0 TDs and 3 INT’s.  With the Cards trading WR Anquan Boldin, defenses can now dedicate more attention than ever to covering Larry.  The Cardinals are also attempting to get more involved in the running game.  This leaves Larry Fitzgerald to be a fantasy bust this season, and he’ll be the second or third WR off the board in your fantasy draft.  Do not be the one who makes this mistake.

5.  Thomas Jones – Chiefs RB:

Jones was the featured runner for the Jets last season and had 331 carries for 1,402 yds and 14 TD’s.  What a difference one offseason can make.  The Jets decided to part ways with Jones, and signed Ladanian Tomlinson to go alongside Shonn Greene.  Jones is now a Chief and they already have a young feature back in Jamaal Charles.  How the carries get split between the two is yet to be determined, but in no way will Jones get as many carries as Charles, barring injury.  Jones is 31, and most running backs start their decline at 30, so Jones will probably be used on third downs, short yardage, and to spell Charles during games.  Even if he does get more carries than I’m expecting, it will be well shy of 300, and Jones will likely have less than 1,000 yards rushing.  Look for a big drop off in 2010.